Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1262
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1262 · AUS → OAK
departs 3:07 PM CT · arrives 4:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 11/13 46%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 39%
Mon 11/16 32%
Tue 11/17 36%
Wed 11/18 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
AUS is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.