Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 1528 · DCA → MCI
departs 5:42 PM ET · arrives 7:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 38%
Tue 11/17 31%
Wed 11/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.