Schedule: FAA flight plans.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1531
SCHEDULED
Friday, November 13 Today
WN 1531 · DCA → MCO
departs 4:53 PM ET · arrives 7:29 PM ET
Your aircraft is N8539V (B738), coming in as WN 3406 from STL: in the air, landing about 4:16 PM ET, 31 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16 35%
Tue 11/17 30%
Wed 11/18 31%
Thu 11/19 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 37 min after the scheduled departure, about 19 min late from the gate after a typical 18-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 42%.
+7 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 37 min after the scheduled departure, about 19 min late from the gate after a typical 18-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 49%.
+7 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.