Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 1761 · FAT → DEN
departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 4:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 15%
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at FAT that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.