Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1851 · LAS → BUR
departs 12:33 PM PT · arrives 1:49 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 33%
Sun 11/15 40%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±9 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.