Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1851 · LAS → BUR
departs 1:07 PM PT · arrives 2:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 11/13 35%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 40%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at LAS that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.