Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2021 · SJD → PHX
departs 2:41 PM MST · arrives 4:54 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 31%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD
Weather at each end
SJD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.