Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 2021 · SJD → PHX
departs 2:01 PM MST · arrives 4:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 11/13 40%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 31%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD
Weather at each end
SJD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.