WN 2307 · LAS → BWI

departs 2:10 PM PT · arrives 9:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at LAS that day

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BWI (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2307 · LAS → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?