Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2307
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2307 · LAS → BWI
departs 2:11 PM PT · arrives 9:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 88%
Sat 11/14 33%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 35%
Thu 11/19 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.