Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 2516 · SFO → LAX
departs 2:26 PM PT · arrives 3:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 46%
Sun 11/15 57%
Mon 11/16 50%
Tue 11/17 52%
Wed 11/18 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
95%
chance · ±5 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
95%
Leave 15+ late
82%
Arrive 1h+ late
71%
Cancelled
24%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
95%
Yes 95%
No 5%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
82%
Yes 82%
No 18%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
4%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
31%
Cancelled
24%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.63 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,467 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.