Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 2516 · SFO → LAX
departs 4:25 PM PT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Fri 11/13 95%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 57%
Mon 11/16 50%
Tue 11/17 52%
Wed 11/18 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.