WN 2838 · DAL → DCA

took off 9:06 PM CT · expected to land 12:25 AM ET (scheduled 5:06 PM CT → 9:03 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2838 · DAL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?