WN 2916 · OAK → PDX

departs 1:10 PM PT · arrives 2:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±9 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OAK that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.49 in

PDX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,233 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2916 · OAK → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?