Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2930
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2930 · LAS → SAT
departs 1:43 PM PT · arrives 6:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 27%
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.