Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2930
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 2930 · LAS → SAT
departs 10:47 AM PT · arrives 3:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 11/13 39%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.