Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 3476 · SJC → GEG
departs 1:11 PM PT · arrives 3:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 57%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 21%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SJC that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
GEG usually runs smoothly
↓
SJC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.50 in
GEG (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.