Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 432
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 432 · LGA → MDW
departs 3:05 PM ET · arrives 4:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 78%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.26 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.