Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4509 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 5:42 PM PT (2 H 22 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)
Today

WN 4509 · SMF → PHX

departs 3:05 PM PT · arrives 6:10 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Odds over time

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
100% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 6.8d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to PHX?

  1. On time or early
    63%
  2. 15–30 min late
    16%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    10%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    7%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.