Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4509 · SMF → PHX
departs 3:06 PM PT · arrives 6:07 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 31%
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 30%
Thu 11/19 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,567 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.37 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.