Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 4651 · MIA → BNA
departs 4:58 PM ET · arrives 6:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 42%
Sun 11/15 52%
Mon 11/16 40%
Tue 11/17 32%
Wed 11/18 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.