Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1242 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

AA 1242 · DCA → PWM

departs 12:44 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1242 · DCA → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?