AA 1487 · ORD → SAT

departs 8:52 PM CT · arrives 11:48 PM CT

Your aircraft is N762US (A319), coming in as AA 3059 from SAT: landed 5:19 PM CT.

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,143 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling720 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1487 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?