AA 206 · MIA → MXP

departs 8:02 PM ET · arrives 10:44 AM CET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MXP more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±0 pts +40 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MXP?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
48%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Arrivals into MXP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MXP (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 206 · MIA → MXP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MXP?