AA 2868 · DFW → BNA

took off 9:23 PM CT · landed 10:46 PM CT (scheduled 7:47 PM CT → 9:44 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precip0.08 in

BNA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2868 · DFW → BNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to BNA?