AA 36 · DFW → MAD

departs 3:51 PM CT · arrives 7:53 AM CET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MAD?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

MAD (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 36 · DFW → MAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAD?