AS 7015 · BRW → ANC

departs 10:45 AM AKT · arrives 12:49 PM AKT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 42 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0 mi forecast at BRW that day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ BRW usually runs smoothly

↓ 10am departures from BRW are usually not late

Weather at each end

BRW (origin) Gusts42 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7015 · BRW → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?