Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1205
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
DL 1205 · AVL → LGA
departs 3:02 PM ET · arrives 4:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±13 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,067 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.