Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Today
DL 1230 · DTW → MEM
departs 5:53 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16 17%
Tue 11/17 28%
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.