Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1230 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

DL 1230 · DTW → MEM

departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 9:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DTW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1230 · DTW → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?