Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1613
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Today
DL 1613 · MCI → MSP
departs 3:31 PM CT · arrives 5:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/15 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.