OO 3709 · MSP → ORF

departs 7:50 PM CT · arrives 11:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

72% chance · ±0 pts +57 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
59%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↑ 7pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3709 · MSP → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?