OO 4071 · MSP → BIS

took off 3:02 PM CT · expected to land 3:59 PM CT (scheduled 2:47 PM CT → 4:23 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BIS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BIS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BIS (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4071 · MSP → BIS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BIS?