Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4970
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
OO 4970 · ORD → BHM
departs 10:01 PM CT · arrives 11:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 11/13 24%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 40%
Mon 11/16 28%
Tue 11/17 26%
Wed 11/18 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BHM (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.