Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
OO 4978 · PVR → LAX
departs 5:21 PM CST · arrives 6:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 11/13 42%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 34%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PVR (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.