UA 1534 · DEN → RIC

took off 8:22 PM MT · expected to land 1:20 AM ET (scheduled 5:50 PM MT → 11:25 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RIC?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
42%
Over 2 hours late
58%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1534 · DEN → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?