Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2796 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

UA 2796 · PHX → EWR

departs 12:40 PM MT · arrives 7:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

EWR (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,433 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2796 · PHX → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?