Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2796 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

UA 2796 · PHX → EWR

departs 12:47 PM MT · arrives 7:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2796 · PHX → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?