Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2839 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

UA 2839 · TPA → SFO

departs 6:47 PM ET · arrives 9:38 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±8 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2839 · TPA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?