UA 292 · AUS → SFO

took off 10:01 PM CT · expected to land 11:29 PM PT (scheduled 6:46 PM CT → 8:43 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.21 in

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 292 · AUS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?