Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 292 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

UA 292 · AUS → SFO

departs 6:40 PM CT · arrives 8:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±14 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 292 · AUS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?