Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1010
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1010 · DEN → LAS
departs 3:32 PM MT · arrives 4:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 11/13 51%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 46%
Mon 11/16 38%
Tue 11/17 30%
Wed 11/18 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.