WN 1157 · SNA → SJC

departs 3:41 PM PT · arrives 5:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

SJC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1157 · SNA → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?