Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1157 · SNA → SJC
departs 3:23 PM PT · arrives 4:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 25%
Thu 11/19 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SJC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Arrivals into SJC at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,767 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.