Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 1485 · OAK → LAX
departs 5:35 PM PT · arrives 7:02 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 83%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 51%
Mon 11/16 29%
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 23%
Thu 11/19 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.