Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1485 · OAK → LAX
departs 5:35 PM PT · arrives 7:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 83%
Sat 11/14 33%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 29%
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 23%
Thu 11/19 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.48 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.