Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1702
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1702 · SAT → LAS
departs 3:52 PM CT · arrives 4:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 11/13 56%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 34%
Tue 11/17 23%
Wed 11/18 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.