Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 2429 · LAS → SAN
departs 3:04 PM PT · arrives 4:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 73%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 62%
Mon 11/16 48%
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±3 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.