Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2429 · LAS → SAN
departs 3:29 PM PT · arrives 4:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 73%
Sat 11/14 50%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 48%
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.