Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 281 · SAN → HNL
departs 5:25 PM PT · arrives 9:37 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16 35%
Tue 11/17 28%
Wed 11/18 26%
Thu 11/19 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HNL that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.10 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.